Friday, October 24, 2008

Back on Market..

I'm still struggling with the best way to represent that amount of homes falling out of escrow. The above graph represents the current months Back On Markets (BOM) divided by the average of the previous 3 months pendings. The number of properties going pending in September was the strongest month this year at 1305, no sign of a seasonal slowdown in that regard. This months number of BOM was also the largest number this year at 440. While we have seen an increase in pendings sequentially every month this year this hasn't translated directly into an increase in sales each month. It is looking like the fallout is winning the war.

If a seasonal slowdown does come the fallout ratio will spike and sales will fall even more dramatically than normal. If the seasonal slowdown doesn't come then one of two things will be happening 1) Housing is in recovery mode, not likely, but you'll be able to tell if this is true by watching prices firm up or 2) The lenders have stayed motivated to move inventory during the fall/winter months and you will see if this is true by watching prices plummet.

Update:

Here is the BOM as a percentage of the current months pendings (blue line) and as a percentage of the previous months pendings (red line).

Here is a chart of sales (orange) , pendings (green) and BOM (purple) over time.

1 comment:

Noz said...

How about representing a ratio of BOM to days on market?