As we move through the year I hear words like "recovery" and "bottom" from agents I meet and interviewed in the press in regards to April 2008. If things are feeling better it should start showing up in the numbers. Here are the historic trends for Ventura County as a both yearly and just for the month of April as reported by Dataquick. So far I see nothing but a seasonal uptick in the numbers with April still looking weak historically. For the real estate industry volume matters more than pricing. And as prices continue to fall things will start feeling better for the real estate agents because sales volume will pick up.
I do think that this last winter marked a low point as far as sales volume and just based on simple supply and demand that as prices continue to fall sales will continue to pick up. Due to economic headwinds, such as government spending cuts and the situations with Countrywide and Amgen, I don't think the sales volume recovery will be very sharp but it should be better. This is little comfort to the average homeowner as prices will continue to fall to match incomes and available financing in the marketplace.
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