Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - January 2011

Here are the sales for Ventura County January 2011. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 540 for December. That would be the second worst showing for January since I've been keeping records. Some of that is due to Decembers stronger showing which was a pulling forward of demand due to the spike in interest rates.

I don't watch the broader market quite as close as I used to since buying a house but I still look at a narrow segment within Ventura County. My general sense is that the low end if falling away and the mid-market houses are just stagnating, with little inventory to chose from and intense competition for any "deals" that pop up. With rates knocking on 5.25% area that puts intense pressure on the market compared to just a month and a half ago where buyers could get a 4% mortgage rate.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - December 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County December 2010. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 700 for December. While historically low sales, relative to the past few months that is a strong showing. There is a couple of different reasons I can see for the late surge. First the interest rate surge from 3.875% for a 30yr fixed to 4.750% would prompt those with locks to hurry up and close, this would also scare the sellers to take a slightly lower price now rather than a greater lower price later. Secondly it appears the banks were clearing some REO inventory at the end of the year with the strongest REO sales since October of 2009. The banks may have been worried about the interest rate surge or just trying to clear up the books and take some losses to offset some profits. If these theories are true neither of them suggest a durability or robustness to the market just a pull forward of demand.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - November 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County November 2010. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 575 for November. This is very low sales level and is usually only seen around January/February.

Interest rates recently spiked from sub-4% to mid-4.5% plus.. that will pressure the market further in the coming spring season and could blow up some existing pendings as everyone (myself included!) expected QE2 to lower mortgage rates or at least keep them at 4%.

Stagnation in the market appears to still remain the new normal.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - November 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for November 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for November. But, it appears that sales should be lower in November than October.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - October 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County October 2010. Based on me taking statistics a bit later than usual and adjusting for recent changes in the underlying data sources I think the Dataquick number will be around 600 for October. This is very low sales levels usually only seen around the winter months. Sellers keep cutting prices looking for buyers but its just a slow time of year (see Mortgage Purchase Applications Index for proof) so things don't look to be getting better anytime soon. Interest rates are set up to reach sub 4% levels and supply is muted and adjusting price slowly to the new reality. Stagnation appears to be the case still for the next few months (and probably beyond).

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - October 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for October 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for October. But, it appears that sales should be at the same levels as August perhaps slightly weaker.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - September 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County September 2010. We are at levels which suggest flat to down sales from August but there is one caveat. The underlying data source has been undergoing some changes and I don't know how that will effect these numbers (there is more of a possibility of double counting now). So there is a possibility the numbers could come in a bit weaker than my call of 700-720 for the Dataquick Ventura sales number but I wouldn't think it would be dramatically lower (nothing lower than 650). I just don't have enough data at this point to know how the changes will effect my normal guesstimate.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - September 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for September 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for September. But, it appears that sales should be at the same levels as August perhaps slightly weaker.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - August 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County August 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be down YoY at around 750 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. Watching the weekly inventory reports for Ventura County you can see supply building but contingents and pendings have stopped falling rapidly due to continued price cuts by sellers. If Dataquick sales do come in around 750 that would be the worst August since in at least a decade (the period for which I have data).

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - August 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for August 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for August. But, it appears that sales should be at "weakest August on record" levels. I doubt you will hear that spin in the local association press release.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - July 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County for July 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be down 10-15% at around 730 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. Watching the weekly inventory reports for Ventura County you can see supply building but contingents and pendings have stopped falling rapidly due to continued price cuts by sellers. The current level of demand is still extremely low reminiscent of January/February demand levels but when the sellers get the price right the homes fly off the market.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - July 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for July 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for July. It appears that sales should be down 10-15% YoY when all the late reporters are counted. These sales levels are extremely weak historically.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - June 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County for June 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be about even at around 840 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. If you watch the weekly inventory report you can see the market weakening even in the face of sub-5% rates, contingents and pendings falling, sales stagnant. All this with massive incentives and choked off supply.. it is clearly a vain attempt to keep the market propped up. I fully expect more housing incentives to hit the market they will just have to wait until after the November elections.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - June 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for June 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for May. It appears that sales should be even YoY when all the late reporters are counted. These sales levels are extremely weak historically and just an indication of this highly engineered market. With the end of the tax credit it appears it is going out with a whimper not a bang, it looks like the SFV will be down slightly YoY when the late reporters check in.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - May 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County for May 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be up slightly YoY at around 810 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. If you watch the weekly inventory report you can see the market weakening even in the face of sub-5% rates, contingents and pendings falling, sales stagnant. All this with massive incentives and choked off supply.. it is clearly a vain attempt to keep the market propped up. I fully expect more housing incentives to hit the market they will just have to wait until after the November elections.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - May 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for May 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for May. It appears that sales should be even YoY when all the late reporters are counted. These sales levels are extremely weak historically and just an indication of this highly engineered market. With the end of the tax credit it appears it is going out with a whimper not a bang.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - April 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County for April 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be down slightly YoY at around 775 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. I don't see any signs of the ice melting yet just more of the same with a bit of seasonal inventory coming on market. The stuff in the affordable ranges gets gobbled up quickly, the overpriced stuff just sits. We should see a small sales bump, at best slight YoY gains, going into June after that the sales should taper off unless something breaks the logjam.

The increase in short sale percentages was interesting as this was the first month of HAFA. But I didn't see a corresponding increase in short sales in the SFV so at this time I will just keep any eye out to see if its a trend or an anomaly.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - April 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for April 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak will ultimately be for April. It appears that sales should be lower YoY when all the late reporters are counted. These sales levels are extremely weak historically and just an indication of this highly engineered market. Stagnation continues to be the word of the day.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - March 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for march 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak or strong sales will ultimately be for March. It appears that sales should be lower YoY when all the late reporters are counted. These sales levels are extremely weak historically and just an indication of this highly engineered market. Stagnation continues to be the word of the day.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - March 2010

Here are the sales for Ventura County for March 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be down slightly YoY at around 740-750 sales. This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. I don't see any signs of the ice melting yet just more of the same with a bit of seasonal inventory coming on market. The stuff in the affordable ranges gets gobbled up quickly, the overpriced stuff just sits. We should see a small sales bump, at best slight YoY gains, going into June after that the sales should taper off unless something breaks the logjam.