San Fernando Valley home sales report - November 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for November 2010 came in at 470 which is down 11.65% MoM and down 19.24% YoY. This is the fourteenth straight month of YoY declines and the second worst November on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $385,000 which is even MoM and down 2.53% YoY. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting December will come in below November levels.

Condo sales came in at 178 which is up 5.95% MoM and down 11.31% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $210,000 which is down 4.54% MoM and down 6.66% YoY. Relative to SFH condos have been performing better but that is because there is more motivated condo supply than SFH. Sales are still horrible in historical context, just not as bad as SFH.

Based on November pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest sales for December coming in lower than November.

Weekly Housing Inventory update for SFV & Ventura - 12/04/2010

Here are the weekly inventory and pending counts for Ventura County and the San Fernando Valley. For the legend Single Family Homes is abbreviated SFH, Ventura County is abbreviated VC and San Fernando Valley is abbreviated SFV. For readers who might not know, REO are bank owned foreclosures and short sales are owners hoping to sell the home for less than what is owed on the mortgage balance.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - November 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for November 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for November. But, it appears that sales should be lower in November than October.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - October 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for October 2010 came in at 532 which is down 8.43% MoM and down 19.76% YoY. This is the thirteenth straight month of YoY declines and the second worst October on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $385,000 which is down 2.53% MoM and up 1.28% YoY. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting November will come in at October levels.

Condo sales came in at 168 which is down 13.40% MoM and down 26.31% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $220,000 which is even MoM and down 6.38% YoY. Relative to SFH condos have been performing better but that is because there is more motivated condo supply than SFH. Sales are still horrible in historical context, just not as bad as SFH.

Based on October pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest sales for November coming in about even.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - October 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for October 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for October. But, it appears that sales should be at the same levels as August perhaps slightly weaker.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - September 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for September 2010 came in at 581 which is up 7.79% MoM and down 15.06% YoY. This is the twelfth straight month of YoY declines and the second worst September on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $395,000 which is down 1.25% MoM and up 3.95% YoY. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting October will come in at or below September levels.

Condo sales came in at 194 which is down 6.73% MoM and up 2.64% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $220,000 which is down 4.34% MoM and down 5.17 YoY. Relative to SFH condos have been performing better but that is because there is more motivated condo supply than SFH. Sales are still horrible in historical context, just not as bad as SFH.

Based on September pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest sales for October coming in about even.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - September 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for September 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for September. But, it appears that sales should be at the same levels as August perhaps slightly weaker.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - August 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for August 2010 came in at 539 which is down 8.49% MoM and down 19.55% YoY. This is the eleventh straight month of YoY declines and the WORST August on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $400,000 which is up 0.25% MoM and down 2.83% YoY. Residential inventory is up YoY and growing. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting September will come in at August levels.

Condo sales came in at 208 which is down 3.70% MoM and down 9.56% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $230,000 which is down 4.54% MoM and eevn YoY. The only strength in the market is in the condo space and I think that is due more to the amount of motivated supply (whole condo projects going defunct). Condo pendings aren't strong going forward and are at levels suggesting that September sales will look very much like August.

Based on August pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest stagnant sales for September.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - August 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for August 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for August. But, it appears that sales should be at "weakest August on record" levels. I doubt you will hear that spin in the local association press release.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - July 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for July 2010 came in at 589 which is down 9.24% MoM and down 20.94% YoY. This is the tenth straight month of YoY declines and the WORST July on record for Single Family Home sales. The median price for single family homes came in at $399,000 which is up 3.64% MoM and down 0.25% YoY. Residential inventory is officially up YoY but inventory is still light. The market is completed stagnated, the administration is keeping the motivated inventory generally off the market and there is no market clearing event so sales and buyers choices will continue to be horrible going forward. New pendings last month were at levels suggesting August will come in at or slightly below July which would make for the worst August on record.

Condo sales came in at 216 which is down 17.56% MoM and up 6.40% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $220,000 which is down 4.34% MoM and down 3.50% YoY. The only strength in the market is in the condo space and I think that is due more to the amount of motivated supply (whole condo projects going defunct). Condo pendings aren't strong going forward and are at levels suggesting that August sales will look very much like July.

Based on July pendings (green line) the predictor (red line) suggest slightly lower sales for August.

I predict the NAR will be going hat in hand to Congress for another tax credit soon (probably after the elections). With sales this bad they will try to get another handout.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - July 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for July 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for July. It appears that sales should be down 10-15% YoY when all the late reporters are counted. These sales levels are extremely weak historically.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - June 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for June 2010 came in at 649 which is down 4.42% MoM and down 16.26% YoY. This is the ninth straight month of YoY declines and the WORST June on record. The median price for single family homes came in at $385,000 which is even MoM and up 2.67% YoY. Residential inventory is officialy up YoY. New pendings last month dropped below June 2008 (which was worse than 2009) levels.

Condo sales came in at 262 which is up 23.00% MoM and up 11.01% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $230,000 which is down 1.29% MoM and up 1.77% YoY. This was the best month for condo sales since July 2007. Clearly the larger condo supply and tax credit deadline had people choosing condos over SFH in a desperate attempt to get the tax credit. The only strength in the market is in the condo space and I think that is due more to the amount of motivated supply (whole condo projects going defunct). Condo pendings aren't strong going forward but they are doing much better than SFH.

Based on pendings (the top green line) we should see a lower closed sale for July but considering how muted June was I think we very well could see even lower sales as back on market properties stay on market instead of being sold again.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - June 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for June 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for May. It appears that sales should be even YoY when all the late reporters are counted. These sales levels are extremely weak historically and just an indication of this highly engineered market. With the end of the tax credit it appears it is going out with a whimper not a bang, it looks like the SFV will be down slightly YoY when the late reporters check in.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - May 2010

Note: I know that the weekly inventory reports are broken. Google broke their chart widgets and are working on restoring them.

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for May 2010 came in at 679 which is up 5.43% MoM and down 4.10% YoY. This is the eighth straight month of YoY declines and the third worst May sales on record. The median price for single family homes came in at $385,000 which is down 1.58% MoM and up 10.00% YoY. The supply constrained market is hurting sales in the SFV. Supply is still down YoY but that looks to change by mid-year if the trend of low sales and rising inventory holds.

Condo sales came in at 213 which is down 1.84% MoM and down 5.75% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $233,000 which is down 6.80% MoM and up 25.94% YoY. Condos are faring better than SFH because there is more supply due to all the new condo construction during the boom and it appears some buyers are choosing to buy a condo when they can't find what they want in a detached home. Sales are still extremely low historically, just not as bad as SFH.

The line that is most interesting in this graph is the top green line. This denotes pending sales booked in May. Notice the large (20.9%) decrease during prime buying season. The red line is predicting a sales increase for June but May's predicted increase was muted. June will be tepid and July may be cliff diving. There is evidence of a very weak May home shopping season in the national news as well. It looks like things could start to get interesting again.

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - May 2010

Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for May 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak sales will ultimately be for May. It appears that sales should be even YoY when all the late reporters are counted. These sales levels are extremely weak historically and just an indication of this highly engineered market. With the end of the tax credit it appears it is going out with a whimper not a bang.

San Fernando Valley home sales report - April 2010

San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for April 2010 came in at 644 which is up 8.42% MoM and down 6.80% YoY. This is the seventh straight month of YoY declines and the third worst April sales on record. The median price for single family homes came in at $379,000 which is down 5.25% MoM and up 6.76% YoY. The supply constrained market is hurting sales in the SFV. Supply is still down YoY but that looks to change by mid-year if the trend of low sales and rising inventory holds.

Condo sales came in at 217 which is up 2.84% MoM and up 3.33% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $250,000 which is up 16.82% MoM and up 12.20% YoY. Condos are faring much better than SFH because there is more supply due to all the new condo construction during the boom and it appears some buyers are choosing to buy a condo when they can't find what they want in a detached home. Sales are still extremely low historically, just not as bad as SFH.

The red line was my attempt to create a predictor for sales but it hasn't been working out so well since May of this last year. IMHO, it appears that some pendings are being double counted, instead of falling out and going BOM (which would reduce my predictor), they are just switching buyers and updating the pending date which gets them counted in the current months pendings again. This is supposition on my part since I don't know how SRAR constructs their numbers but nothing much else makes sense. But the predictor is saying sales will rise significantly for May.