Showing posts with label February. Show all posts
Showing posts with label February. Show all posts

Sunday, March 28, 2010

San Fernando Valley home sales report - February 2010


San Fernando Valley Single Family Home sales for February 2010 came in at 458 which is down 7.29% MoM and down 4.58% YoY. The median price for single family homes came in at $375,000 which is down 1.32% MoM and up 10.33% YoY. The supply constrained market is hurting sales in the SFV. Based on what I am seeing in the weekly inventory reports that doesn't appear to be changing anytime soon.


Condo sales came in at 190 which is down 6.86% MoM and up 17.28% YoY. Median price for condos came in at $227,000 which is up 5.58% MoM and up 8.09% YoY. Condos are faring much better than SFH because there is more supply due to all the new condo construction during the boom and it appears some buyers are choosing to buy a condo when they can't find what they want in a detached home.

The red line was my attempt to create a predictor for sales but it hasn't been working out so well since May of this last year. IMHO, it appears that some pendings are being double counted, instead of falling out and going BOM (which would reduce my predictor), they are just switching buyers and updating the pending date which gets them counted in the current months pendings again. This is supposition on my part since I don't know how SRAR constructs their numbers but nothing much else makes sense.

Wednesday, March 17, 2010

Ventura County February 2010 Home Sales



Dataquick reported home sales for Ventura County for February 2010 today. Home sales came in at 580 up 6.4% YoY. The median sales price came in at $350,000 up 7.0% YoY. This report was exactly in line with the prediction I made at the beginning of the month. Slowing YoY sales due to constricted inventory, the second worst monthly sales on record. The market is in an artificial state, low sales and high prices because that is exactly the stated goal of the various government agencies. This month I added in the YoY change graph, as the year progresses I think we will see a shallow decline in solds as the low inventory state has shown no sign of abating. Median YoY changes are highly dependent on mix shift (especially in this small of a market) so I don't have much of a prediction there.

Monday, March 8, 2010

Ventura County Trustee sales for February 2010


Ventura County Trustee Sales for February 2010 came in at 253. This is essentially flat to the previous months on a foreclosure per day basis. The market continues in its static state with no change apparent on the horizon.

Trustee Sales for Los Angeles County February 2010


Los Angeles County Trustee sales came in at 2515 for February 2010. Flat to slightly lower on a foreclosure per day basis.

Orange County Trustee sales for February 2010


Orange County trustee sales for February 2010 came in at 670. As always I am impressed with the number of third party sales in the OC.

San Diego Trustee Sales February 2010


San Diego trustee sales for February 2010 came in at 1090, Basically flat on a foreclosure per day basis to the previous months.

Tuesday, March 2, 2010

Short Sale & Foreclosures for the San Fernando Valley - February 2010


Here is the sales breakdown for the San Fernando Valley for February 2010. The SFV has a lot more late reporters as a percentage of sales and so it is a bit tougher to discern right now just how weak or strong sales will ultimately be for February . It appears that sales should be lower YoY when all the late reporters are counted. These sales levels are extremely weak historically and just an indication of this highly engineered market. Stagnation continues to be the word of the day.

Short Sale & Foreclosure for Ventura County - February 2010


Here are the sales for Ventura County for Febuary 2010. Sales are still very low, with late reporters I expect the official Dataquick numbers will be up a bit YoY at around 580-600 sales (still very low historically). This continued stagnation in the market is the same boring story, less supply due to government intervention trying to keep prices high at all costs. I don't see any signs of the ice melting yet just more of the same with a bit of seasonal inventory coming on market. The stuff in the affordable ranges gets gobbled up quickly, the overpriced stuff just sits. Short sales and foreclosures are around half the market but the shift has been ongoing for some time from predominately foreclosures to an even split of short sales and REO.

Tuesday, March 24, 2009

More San Fernando Valley home sale information - February 2009

Here is the various Back On Market (BOM) ratios for February 2009 home sales. Note, the local REALTOR® group uses the BOM as a % of sales as their preferred metric.

Here are total sales, total pending and total BOM while pendings leveled off there is still a large number of homes under contract and trying to clear contingencies. I'd expect pendings to rise significantly going into summer. I am also predicting that once this rush of buyers clears through the system we will see year-over-year sales declines around July or August. Currently lenders are being hammered so I could see more of a steady rise of sales instead of a leap as the remaining understaffed lenders work off the backlog of pendings.



This graph is identical the the graph above except for the red line. This red line is a sales estimate based on BOM and current month pendings shifted forward 60 days in time to account for escrows and reporting lag. I have no idea if it is a valid way to look at the market I'm just going to follow it for a bit to see how well it does. It is predicting total sales of around 770 next month which feels a bit low but in the ballpark.

Saturday, March 21, 2009

San Fernando Valley home sales for February 2009



San Fernando Valley single family home sales for February came in at 480. As you can see from the above charts that is still a very weak number relative to previous years but better than the all time low the year before. Sales were down 7.34 percent from January and up 34.08 percent from the year before. The median price came in at $339,900 which was down 2.89 percent from the month before and down 35.26 percent from the year earlier period. This should be the weakest month of the year as far as sales but considering the deterioration of the economy that isn't a given. As seen in
earlier posts the market is only this "good" due to distressed sales and if REO or short sale inventory should slow due to government intervention sales should slow right along with them.



Condo sales came in at 162, down 2.40 percent from the month before and up 48.62 percent from the year earlier period. Median price for condos came in at $210,000 which was up 10.52 percent from January and down 36.36 from February 2008.


I'll have more regarding back on market and pendings for the San Fernando Valley later this week.

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Ventura County February 2009 Sales




Dataquick released its February 2009 home sales report for Southern California. For Ventura County sales came in at 545, up 10.1% from the year before and down 5.7% from the previous month. Median price came in at $327,000 which is down $118,000 (-26.5%) from the year before and down $303,000 (-48.0%) from the peak. The mix shift of the lower end foreclosures are driving any strength in sales but sales are extremely weak. Last year at this time rates were 5.92% and rates now are hovering around 5%, prices have come down a lot and yet sales were anemic. This is the seasonal low point for the year so I wouldn't put too much stock into it. Sales will improve as the initial rush of the tax credit buyers clear through the market. After that I would expect sales to slow further, possibly even go negative Year over Year and due to low end slowing sales, median price to rise a bit. This is all driven by the slow down in motivated inventory due to the foreclosure moratoriums and the deteriorating economy.

Monday, March 2, 2009

San Fernando Valley Home sales estimates for February 2009



Here are the preliminary sales and price estimates for the San Fernando Valley for February 2009. Single Family Home (SFH) sales are estimated to be 465 with the median price of approximately $350,000. Condo sales are estimated to be 145 with the median price of approximately $195,000. Sales are still very weak historically but off the all time low which was set in February 2008. I am seeing a surge in pending transactions which I attribute to both seasonality, as February is the seasonal low point, and people rushing to claim the tax credit. I think the tax credit rush is a temporary effect and sales will be muted by the deteriorating local economy as we move into mid-year.